|40.27%||7||Opp. Rush %||39.01%||5|
|59.73%||26||Opp. Pass %||60.99%|
Rest Alert or Motivation
With the revelation that the Week 17 game between the Bills and Bengals would not be made up and will be considered a no contest, the Bills must win and the Chiefs must lose to claim the AFC’s top seed. The outcome of the Chiefs game will be disclosed prior to start, but the Bills must also win or the Bengals must lose to claim the No. 2 seed. The Bills should be expected to play this game aggressively in order to win.
The Patriots can secure a postseason spot if the Dolphins, Steelers, and Titans all lose.
Josh Allen: Despite throwing for only 172 yards (6.6 Y/A) with two interceptions in Chicago during Week 16, Allen scored a pair of passing touchdowns, another rushing touchdown, and 41 yards on the ground to turn in a QB6 (23.0 point) scoring week.
That has been Allen’s story for the majority of the season. Over his last nine games, he has averaged 222.7 passing yards per game and has passed for more than 223 yards three times. During that time, he has 15 touchdowns and nine interceptions. However, he has been a QB1 in seven of those nine games, averaging 22.3 points per game, after another outstanding season with his legs.
Allen is only 17 yards and seven carries away from setting new career highs in carries and attempts. He has seven more rushing touchdowns. Only Jalen Hurts and Justin Fields have more rushing points than Brady this season.
Outside of the “wind game” a year ago, Allen has had success against the Patriots. Allen has thrown 10 touchdowns and zero interceptions in the last three encounters between these teams, rushing for 64, 66, and 20 yards in those games.
Stefon Diggs: Diggs has had a quiet fantasy postseason, finishing the last three weeks as the WR59 (3-37-0), WR39 (5-60-0), and WR69 (3-37-0), respectively (2-26-0). Diggs hasn’t over 100 yards since going over in six of his first nine outings this season. A tiny hall pass for meeting the Jets in Week 14 and the weather a week ago, but far below Diggs’ fantasy performance standard.
Diggs has nailed 25% or more of the team’s targets in only two of the last six games after reaching 29.0% or more in seven of the first nine.
When these teams met in Week 13, Diggs grabbed 7-of-9 targets for 92 yards and a touchdown. When Diggs is at his best, the Patriots play man coverage at the sixth-highest rate in the league (33.5%). Diggs has been targeted on 31.7% of his routes against man coverage and 23.7% of his routes against zone coverage.
Bills RBs: The Bills rushed for a season-high 254 yards as a team in Week 16, with both Devin Singletary (106 yards rushing) and James Cook (99 yards rushing) putting up monster numbers. Cook had 11 carries to Singletary’s 12. They both had long touchdown scampers, with Singletary scoring from 33 yards out and Cook scoring from 27.
Singletary led the way with 37 snaps (57.8%) and Cook with 26 (40.6%), but the split has been narrower in the second half of the season. Singeltary has handled 48.3% of the backfield touches and has topped 60% in only one of the last four outings.
Cook is still not getting enough work on his own to be a viable weekly option, but he is taking enough work away from Singletary to make him unpredictable.
When these teams met in Week 13 against the Patriots, Buffalo’s backs combined for 174 yards on 36 touches. Cook got 105 yards on 20 touches in that game, while Singletary had 51 yards on 13 touches. Nyheim Hines also contributed 18 yards on three touches.
Rhamondre Stevenson: Stevenson’s outstanding season is tragically coming to an end. He’s been the RB58 and the RB41 the last two weeks. Stevenson played 57% of the snaps (his lowest rate in a full game since Week 4) and 45.5% of the backfield touches (his lowest rate in a full game since Week 2) with Damien Harris returning this week.
Furthermore, Stevenson’s receptions have dwindled, which was the component that was really anchoring his fantasy performance. Stevenson has two receptions in his last three games after averaging 5.3 per game from Weeks 3 to 13.
When these teams met in Week 13, Stevenson had 78 yards on 16 touches on a season-high 94.1% of the backfield touches.
Gabriel Davis: In Week 16, Davis scored his eighth touchdown of the season, which was just enough to offset collecting 3-of-6 targets for 45 yards. Davis has not been a top-30 scorer since Week 10 and has only four weeks this season inside the top 30.
We know he’ll be out there somewhere, preferably with Josh Allen. Davis has run a route for 88.0% of the dropbacks, the team’s highest percentage.
Davis features arguably of the league’s most pronounced coverage splits. With 0.70 yards per route ran, he has been targeted on only 11.6% of his routes against man coverage. Against zone, his target rate rises to 17.6%, with 1.85 yards per route. When these teams met in Week 13, Davis caught a touchdown but only caught two of his seven targets for 15 yards.
Dawson Knox: In Week 16, Knox caught three of five targets for 38 yards and another touchdown against the Bears. Knox has now scored as a TE1 in five of his last seven games after doing it only once in the first seven games of the season. Knox has three touchdown grabs in a row.
He’s also had four games with 41 yards or fewer since Week 10, which speaks much about the tight end position. Knox did not have a reception and only received one target when these teams met in Week 13, but if you are only looking for a touchdown, the Patriots have allowed a 9.4% touchdown rate to tight ends, which ranks 31st in the league.
Ideal Left on Benches
Mac Jones: For the first time this season, Jones has thrown two touchdown passes in back-to-back games, but he only has 240 and 203 passing yards in those games. Jones has only had two QB1 scoring weeks this season and has spent nine weeks as a QB20 or lower. Jones has completed 56.9% of his throws for 5.4 yards per attempt with three touchdowns and four interceptions in four career games versus the Bills.
Patriots WRs: If you have pursuit, Jakobi Meyers is the best of the lot. Meyers had 6-83-1 and 6-48-1 games in the last two weeks. When these teams last met, cornerback Marcus Jones led the Patriots in receiving with 51 yards and a score. Actual New England wideouts caught 10 of 17 targets for 101 yards. Meyers had the most targets, with five (3-22-0).